Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.286772 0.331701 0.380620 0.437740 0.502505 0.573551 0.657284
2025-06-29 0.209760 0.265395 0.330876 0.413278 0.513817 0.632084 0.781297
2025-07-06 0.155461 0.214387 0.289077 0.389897 0.521521 0.686502 0.907776
2025-07-13 0.124674 0.186685 0.270998 0.392514 0.561355 0.785549 1.103202
2025-07-20 0.097688 0.158821 0.247921 0.384825 0.586822 0.870176 1.292936
2025-07-27 0.079415 0.139832 0.233969 0.387663 0.627545 0.981568 1.535350
2025-08-03 0.065445 0.124577 0.222863 0.392923 0.672827 1.105987 1.813886
2025-08-10 0.050383 0.104043 0.199403 0.374487 0.678539 1.171912 2.013938
2025-08-17 0.038059 0.085381 0.175340 0.350550 0.671297 1.216317 2.186189
2025-08-24 0.030292 0.073540 0.161153 0.341451 0.687956 1.302051 2.436979
2025-08-31 0.024197 0.063534 0.148366 0.332539 0.703431 1.387635 2.698176
2025-09-07 0.020629 0.058215 0.144019 0.339502 0.749926 1.534375 3.084849
2025-09-14 0.015916 0.048902 0.129386 0.323254 0.750175 1.599623 3.339002
2025-09-21 0.012629 0.042166 0.119021 0.314274 0.764075 1.693406 3.660000
2025-09-28 0.009934 0.036102 0.108755 0.303395 0.772193 1.777147 3.972868
2025-10-05 0.008537 0.033419 0.106504 0.311441 0.824095 1.957807 4.502220
2025-10-12 0.007042 0.029840 0.100904 0.309897 0.853600 2.095064 4.958751
2025-10-19 0.006033 0.027539 0.098372 0.316003 0.902766 2.281880 5.542514
2025-10-26 0.005215 0.025601 0.096435 0.323419 0.956601 2.486168 6.187566
2025-11-02 0.004102 0.021956 0.088007 0.310280 0.955152 2.562634 6.556963
2025-11-09 0.003129 0.018364 0.078582 0.291828 0.936114 2.594666 6.828666
2025-11-16 0.002535 0.016177 0.073404 0.285459 0.949471 2.707642 7.302712
2025-11-23 0.002051 0.014247 0.068532 0.278916 0.961207 2.818070 7.782977